Yearly Archives: 2011

Individual stock cycles in price and time are the building blocks of major market index cycles. Historically it has been more effective to study stock market cycles using major market indexes as opposed to individual stocks. More recently, since the Federal Reserve has taken up their third mandate mantra of manipulating global markets into a…

Joseph Schumpeter was a Harvard economist and president of the Econometric Society (1940-41). He was author of the two-volume tome Business Cycles (McGraw-Hill 1939). Schumpeter’s cycle research is of particular interest because he was one of the first to attempt to integrate sociological understanding into economic trends. He also presented an integrated approach to cycles…

In a recent article, I introduced the notion that the Heisenberg uncertainty principle provides far more insight for investors and traders interested in market cycle analysis than the infamous Hindenburg Omen. Feedback from readers suggests many appreciated this new line of thinking, while others challenged the proposed application of hard science principles to the softer…

The job of a stock market cycle tracker and forecaster is far more difficult with trillions of dollars in government intervention and global central bank quantitative easing sloshing around global markets. The liquidity is bidding up everything from oil to coffee to corn, but the cyclical stock market picture is clearing up. There is both…