Tracking Market Cycles for Global Investors and Traders

Category Archives: Articles

Articles on current topics.

U.S. Federal Reserve Delivers 50% Higher Stock Market Pavlovian Premium

The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of New York has just released what is essentially a stock market manipulation bragging rights report. Based on their research, they have concluded that stock prices would be 50% lower if they had not worked their magic with interest rates, quantitative easing (QE) and various other tools in their monetary…
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The Market Cycle Dynamics of Intel (INTC)

They say the proof is in the pudding. Upon first encountering the proposed market cycle matrix of the late market analyst PQ Wall, from the Kondratieff long wave down to the 20-week cycle, it was dismissed by this author and fellow market cycle researcher. It simply could not be true. The conclusions were clearly the…
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Debt Deflation, Corporate Efficiency and Stock Prices

It all started out great in 1949. The global economy had finished deleveraging from the great depression. The austerity of the long wave cycle winter season had burned off the results of earlier decades of debt buildup, overproduction, and economic excess. Bad debt had failed and been written off. The global long wave cycle of…
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Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction and Nokia’s 41 Megapixel Camera Innovation

In Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, Joseph Schumpeter coined the term “Creative Destruction” to explain the capitalist process of innovation. Innovation is continually disrupting and transforming companies, industries and entire global economies built on the demands, risks and rewards of international free market capitalism. Innovation and creative destruction is an integral part of economic and financial…
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Value and Dividends at Wall Cycle Lows

In light of the top of the multi-decade bull market and the recurring bear market massacres since the top, investors are increasingly jaded and skeptical. Stocks need to deliver an acceptable dividend stream to satisfy the growing investor preference for income. Investors want value for their money and that means sustainable dividend income at the…
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The K Wave Strikes Back

The Kondratieff long wave cycle (aka The K Wave) provides the only good explanation of the current state of the global economy and financial markets. It is clear that a multi-generation long wave debt cycle has driven individual, government and corporate debt to crisis levels that are now in the process of a slow motion implosion.…
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The ECB Gone Wild; Living in Interesting Times

The historically hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) has the single mandate of ensuring price stability in the European Union. In the face of the rapidly unfolding debt deflation collapse of the European banking system in December 2011, the ECB shocked global financial markets with the December surprise of $645 billion in long-term refinancing operations (LTRO).…
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The Fed’s Inflation Target; QE3, QE4, QE5, etc. are in the Queue

The U.S. Federal Reserve policy announcement on Tuesday, January 25, 2012 marks an important moment in monetary history. The forecast by a majority of the members of the FOMC for interest rates to hug zero until late 2014 was of interest and points to the FOMC conviction extended global economic stagnation at best, reflecting the…
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Morphic Fields and Market Cycles

Dan Brown popularized the Institute of Noetic Sciences (IONS) in the novel The Lost Symbol. IONS is in fact a real research organization. The mission of IONS includes the rather unique goal of supporting individual and collective transformation through consciousness research, with an end toward maximizing human potential. Granted, this is a rather lofty and…
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Central Bankers vs. Natural Market Cycles in 2012

Government fiscal policy and central bank monetary policy have the specific goal of stamping out the business cycle. Governments have been intervening in the economy and financial markets with fiscal policies for thousands of years. Central banking, at least its current form of the last one-hundred years, offers more sophisticated and less transparent methods of intervention including…
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