Category Archives: Articles

Articles on current topics.

The international political economy and global financial markets are deep in the woods. A long wave winter season is blowing cold, and getting colder. Decades of excess leverage in the banking system and sovereign states is coming to an end. Government and consumer spending are hitting a wall. A critical fork on this wintry road…

The late market analyst PQ Wall put forward a rather bold proposal concerning the regular business cycle, which is also known as the Kitchin cycle. Wall concluded that every business cycle subdivides into three sets of three smaller cycles, for nine total cycles. Based on PQ’s contribution to market cycle research, this cycle is known…

Price, time and sentiment represent a three dimensional approach to technical analysis of any market or security. The Fibonacci drill-down grid method is particularly instructive at the current price juncture in the UK FTSE 100. The key to this three-dimensional method is to identify the “hot” Level 1 grid, i.e. the high and low in…

During the last global long wave winter season that occurred in the 1930s and 1940s major economic changes took place that were similar to what the global economy is experiencing today. The big glaring difference at that time was that free market capitalism was losing vast swaths of global markets to communism, dictatorship and stifling…

Occupy Wall Street demonstrations are sweeping the globe. Universally, demonstrators recognize that there is something fundamentally flawed with the current system of international political economy. Most interesting, the left and the right agree on a few key issues. For decades, big business has bought and paid for political favors that have undermined the system, rotting…

The primary purpose for markets is to allow buyers and sellers to reach a deal, strike a price. Anything that distorts this purpose, leads the world inexorably toward crisis and chaos. Free markets best determine prices based on how many sellers there are of goods, services and assets and how much they have available to…

Crashing global stock markets, debt defaults, overproduction, falling prices, tumbling interest rates, global debt deleveraging, and the clear necessity for austerity, they are all classic long wave forces now in full tilt, producing the perfect storm in a Kondratieff long wave winter. Only long wave theory explains the economic and financial events now unfolding daily in the…

In the way of a refresher course, the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) proposes that global financial markets are efficient in terms of the information available to investors and traders that drives prices. Another way of looking at the efficient markets hypothesis, which has influenced much of the investment thinking around the world in recent decades,…

Life without appreciation for irony in global financial, economic and political affairs would be challenging. God undoubtedly enjoys the irony at work in human action. Politicians promising government sponsored heaven on earth for decades have delivered the world into a global financial meltdown nightmare, and the cusp of another depression. All around the world, the…

Nobody can see the future, except of course for a real prophet. I’m not one. Real prophets come along to show us the way very rarely. One of the signs of a true prophet is often that they are run out of town on rails, long before the world realizes that they actually had a…