Category Archives: Articles

Articles on current topics.

One of the contributions to market cycle analysis by the late financial analyst PQ Wall was the discovery that there are nine dynamic market cycles in every business cycle. This cycle is widely known as the 20-week cycle. Investors and traders have been aware of this cycle for decades, although its exact length has been…

Commodity prices have been on a rollercoaster ride as central banks have pumped trillions in liquidity into the global system, trying to prevent a deflationary long wave debt collapse from delivering the economic coup de gras, and driving the global economy into a natural Kondratieff (aka Kondratiev) long wave winter season bottom. Commodities are the…

Evidence is mounting that the pricing mechanism of global markets creates spontaneous order out of the chaos of billions of people pursuing their self-interested purpose. Arriving at a price for products, services and financial assets is the heart of this process. There are successes and failures in every round of pricing, which are priced into…

Nobel economist Friedrich Hayek’s most enduring legacy is his defense of classical liberalism and free market capitalism. The Road to Serfdomis Hayek’s case against central planning, something he viewed as a product of human design as opposed to human action. Hayek and his mentor Ludwig von Mises were the preeminent writers and thinkers of the…

Individual stock cycles in price and time are the building blocks of major market index cycles. Historically it has been more effective to study stock market cycles using major market indexes as opposed to individual stocks. More recently, since the Federal Reserve has taken up their third mandate mantra of manipulating global markets into a…

Joseph Schumpeter was a Harvard economist and president of the Econometric Society (1940-41). He was author of the two-volume tome Business Cycles (McGraw-Hill 1939). Schumpeter’s cycle research is of particular interest because he was one of the first to attempt to integrate sociological understanding into economic trends. He also presented an integrated approach to cycles…

In a recent article, I introduced the notion that the Heisenberg uncertainty principle provides far more insight for investors and traders interested in market cycle analysis than the infamous Hindenburg Omen. Feedback from readers suggests many appreciated this new line of thinking, while others challenged the proposed application of hard science principles to the softer…

The job of a stock market cycle tracker and forecaster is far more difficult with trillions of dollars in government intervention and global central bank quantitative easing sloshing around global markets. The liquidity is bidding up everything from oil to coffee to corn, but the cyclical stock market picture is clearing up. There is both…

There are investors and traders that have been misinformed. They believe the application of Fibonacci ratios to stock market movements in price and time have been fully explored, suggesting there is nothing new in the remarkable discovery of Italy’s favorite son, Leonard Fibonacci, for investing and trading applications. Research at Long Wave Dynamics (LWD) suggests…

Markets and pundits are celebrating the great tax deal “compromise” between the Obama Administration and the Republicans. A tax deal pitched as a compromise between the two-party duopoly that has been selling the United States into debt slavery for decades is not likely in the best interest of the country, or your bank account. The…